Il gioco a incastri dei paletti regolamentari (per esempio due squadre dello stesso Paese non possono incontrarsi agli ottavi, così come due squadre che erano nello stesso girone) e delle percentuali, ci dà un’idea su chi potrebbero incontrare le italiane secondo il calcolo della probabilità. Un calcolo che regala degli scontri particolarmente interessanti ma non certo facili per le due italiane superstiti.
Senza l’Atalanta agli ottavi, la Juventus ha la stessa probabilità di incontrare il Villarreal oppure l’Atletico (18,71%). Appena sotto lo spauracchio PSG (17,81%), seguito da Salisburgo (15,08%), Benfica (14,82%) e Sporting (14,82%).
Per quanto riguarda l’Inter, il rischio più probabile è quello di pescare una squadra inglese. Con la qualificazione del Villarreal: United e Reds (18,71%), City al 18,44%, Lille (16,18%) e la coppia Ajax-Bayern (13,98%).
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